Future Demand for Nature-Based Tourism in Sri Lanka: Toward Sustainable Management of National Parks

Authors

  • K. D. De S. Jayasekara Resource Economics Unit, Department of Forestry and Environmental Science, University of Sri Jayewardenepura
  • U.A.D.P. Gunawardena Resource Economics Unit, Department of Forestry and Environmental Science, University of Sri Jayewardenepura

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.18666/JPRA-2025-12649

Abstract

Conserving wildlife and ecosystems while promoting recreation is the primary objective of establishing national parks (NPs). In Sri Lanka, NPs contribute to the most effective way of practicing nature-based tourism. Our study aims to analyze the variation in the visitations and forecast the visitations to NPs in Sri Lanka, which is essential toward planning for sustainable visitor management. The total number of local and foreign visitations to all the NPs and the visitations to each NP varied throughout the period from 2010 to 2021. Both local and foreign visitations have drastically declined since 2018. The level of foreign visitations was below that of local visitations throughout the entire period considered. Ruhuna (Yala), Horton Plains, Udawalawe, Minneriya, Wilpattu NPs were recorded with the highest level of local visitations. Ruhuna (Yala), Horton Plains, Udawalawe, Minneriya and Kaudulla NPs attracted the highest number of foreign tourists. Yala NP was the most popular tourist destination among both local and foreign tourists. The fitted SARIMA (1,0,1) (1,0,0)12 model forecasts that future visitations will not drastically vary from the current visitations. The NPs will be able to recover from the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, as the forecasted level of visitation for 2022, 2023, and 2024 showed an increase of 20.62%, 28.31%, and 38.56%, respectively, compared to the visitations in 2021. However, the forecasted levels are lower than almost all the values reported before 2020. The recent level of visitations to NPs were declining in contrast to the increasing number of recreational visits to the country. The highest number of visitors was recorded in August in most of the years. However, these patterns were disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic. This study emphasizes the importance of forecasted levels of visitations to suggest management strategies, ensuring the carrying capacities of the parks are optimally maintained. The sustenance of both the natural forest ecosystems and nature-based tourism would be ensured as a consequence. 

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Published

2025-06-02

Issue

Vol. 43 No. 3 (2025)

Section

Research Papers

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